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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2024–Mar 3rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell.

The snowpack remains primed for human triggering. Conservative terrain selection is critical.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural, skier, and explosive-triggered avalanches up to size 3 have continued to be reported daily throughout the region since early in the week. Avalanches have slid on layers in the upper snowpack.

While natural activity is beginning to taper off, human triggering is expected to remain a serious problem.

Snowpack Summary

As much as 100 cm of snow has accumulated over the last week. This recent snow has formed touchy slabs, especially in wind-exposed terrain.

The recent snow sits atop various weak layers of facets, surface hoar, and/or a crust.

A widespread crust formed in early February is buried roughly 70 to 120 cm deep. Facets have been found above this crust. This layer continues to produce many concerning avalanches across the province.

The mid and lower snowpack is largely faceted with depth hoar and a crust found at the bottom of the snowpack in many areas.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Monday

Partly cloudy with 0 to 3 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and cloud. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -12 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.