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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2024–Mar 16th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, Ymir, Crawford, Moyie, St. Mary, Kokanee, Valhalla.

Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.

Intense spring sun and rising temperatures have increased the risk of large natural and rider-triggered avalanches.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday and Thrusday, several large and very large natural and human-triggered avalanches were reported. Notable was a large (size 3) natural avalanche southeast of Nelson on a north aspect in the alpine. See photo for details. Also, check this MIN report for details of a large avalanche west of Kimberly.

Looking forward to a very warm and sunny weekend, we expect the potential for both human and naturally triggered avalanches to remain likely.

Snowpack Summary

During the day, frozen and crusty surface snow will melt and turn moist or slushy due to high freezing levels combined with intense sun. This will be especially prevalent on sunny slopes and at lower elevations. This will cause the avalanche hazard to rise as the day warms. High-elevation shady north-facing slopes may still have some dry snow.

A weak layer of surface hoar is buried 40-60 cm in some areas. A widespread crust with sugary facets above is buried 120-160 cm deep. Both of these layers remain very concerning for human triggering.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Clear. No new snow expected. 30 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature falling to 0 °C. Freezing level around 3000 m with a potential temperature inversion below 1600 m.

Saturday

Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h northeast ridgetop wind.Treeline high around 12 °C. Freezing level around 3200 m.

Sunday

Sunny. No new snow expected. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 12 °C. Freezing level rising to 3200 m.

Monday

Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 12 °C. Freezing level rising to 3300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.