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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2024–Feb 27th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

East Kakwa, Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Riders could trigger large avalanches on various buried layers. Conservative decision making is essential.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

In the neighbouring region, many natural and skier triggered persistent slab avalanches occurred on the facets above the early-February melt-freeze crust described in the Snowpack Summary. They occurred on northerly aspects between 1600 and 2000 m and were 50 to 80 cm thick.

Riders could trigger similar avalanches in the coming days. Persistent slab problems take a while to heal so giving them time is warranted.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40 cm of recent snow sits on a variety of layers that it may not bond well to, including surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, weak facets, or a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed south and west-facing slopes. The wind has likely formed thicker deposits in lee terrain features near ridges.

A thick and hard widespread crust that formed in early February is buried about 50 to 70 cm deep. This crust may have a layer of facets above it, which makes it a troublesome avalanche layer.

The remainder of the snowpack is settled.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Partly cloudy. 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -25 °C.

Tuesday

Clear skies with afternoon clouds. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -20 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.