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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2024–Feb 29th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Keep decision making conservative in the wake of the storm. New snow is expected to remain reactive to human triggers.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Observations remain limited however, natural avalanche activity is expected to continue with more wind and snow.

Snowpack Summary

Storm totals will vary from 50 cm to over 1 m in the west by Thursday afternoon. Storm snow continues to build over a widespread crust in most areas, except northern areas where storm snow will fall on heavily wind-affected snow.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well consolidated. A layer of facets exists between two crusts in the mid snowpack, we are uncertain how this layer will react to new storm snow. This layer is most likely triggered by large loads such as step down avalanches.

Below treeline areas have now received enough snow to produce avalanches. Watch for 'early' season hazard of stumps, creeks and rocks.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Snowfall rates ease with 10-20 cm expected in western areas. 30-50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels drop to 500 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow. 20-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. 5-20 cm of snow. 20-40 km/h southerly ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 600 m.

Saturday

A mix of sun and cloud. Isolated flurries possible. 20-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.