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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2026–Mar 17th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

A big change in weather is on its way!

Heavy snow will add load to an upper snowpack with known weaknesses.

Choose only conservative terrain with no overhead hazard while the snowpack adjusts.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of warming will affect the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, numerous size 1 to 1.5 wind slab avalanches were reported near Golden.

On Sunday, A size 2.5 naturally triggered slab avalanche was reported on Sunday in the backcountry near Gorman. See the full MIN here

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of new snow above 1600 m will add to recent snow bringing incremental accumulation to roughly 20 cm over a sun crust on solar facing terrain and wind effect elsewhere.

Below the recent snow is a 1 to 10 cm thick crust on all aspects. The thickness of the crust depends on elevation.

At upper elevations, where the crust is thinner or not present, it may still be possible to trigger persistent slabs on multiple buried weak layers of surface hoar and/or crusts in the top 120 cm of the snowpack.

In shallow snowpack areas, depth hoar (large facets) can be found near the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 5 cm of snow. 80 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C.

Tuesday
Cloudy. 2 to 3 cm of snow. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 3 to 15 mm rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy. 3 to 10 mm of rain at treeline. 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rocky outcrops, and steep terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.