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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2016–Jan 29th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Continued conservative decision making is recommended as the snowpack settles and adjusts to the recent load and warming.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: A mix on sun and cloud with isolated light flurries. Freezing levels dropping to 1200m and light southwesterly winds. SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud but mainly dry. Freezing levels dropping to 1000m and light northwesterly winds. SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud and mainly dry with freezing levels dropping below valley bottoms and light northwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Wednesday include a isolated storm and wind slab avalanches up to Size 2 from natural, skier and explosive triggers.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses exist within and under the 30-50cm of recent storm snow, which is particularly deep and touchy on wind-loaded slopes in alpine and exposed treeline areas, and bonding poorly to buried surface hoar where it wasn't destroyed by wind or a crust at lower elevations. The persistent weak layer of buried surface hoar, sun crusts, rime crusts and/or facets that was buried in early January is now down about 50-100 cm. The overlying slab remains primed for triggering and is especially touchy at and below treeline. Below that, the snowpack is well settled and strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.