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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2026–Feb 17th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard.

As storm snow accumulates, avalanche hazard will rise, creating vary dangerous avalanche conditions.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming weather system.
  • We are uncertain due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, size 2 storm slab avalanches were artificially triggered in steep alpine terrain

On Saturday, Widespread storm slab avalanche activity was observed. Slabs were size 1.5 to 2, triggered naturally and artificially.

Going forward, we expect storm snow to remain reactive especially where it is being redistributed into lee terrain by moderate wind from the south.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow totals could be 30 to 40 cm by end of day Tuesday. New storm snow overlies a crust on solar facing slopes from clear skies on Sunday and, wind affected snow on north facing terrain.

Below this, a crust buried on the weekend is supportive on south facing and breakable on north facing terrain.

On north aspects we continue to see reactivity on layers of crust, facets and/or surface hoar formed in late January and early February. The persistent problem remains a concern especially in less travelled areas.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Cloudy. 15 cm of snow. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday
Cloudy. 10 to 20 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 2 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -17 °C.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -17 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers and result in very large avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.