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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2016–Jan 18th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

Extra caution required below treeline where a buried weak layer is easily triggered. Check out the new forecaster blog at avalanche.ca/blogs or click here

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

As this weekends storm exits the interior regions we may squeeze out a few more cm of snow by Monday morning. No additional snow is expected Monday to Wednesday. Freezing levels should remain at or near valley bottom, though there is some disagreement in the models regarding freezing levels. Ridgetop winds are expected to stay in the light to moderate range out of the southwest. For additional weather information see avalanche.ca/weather

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend we had limited observations of new avalanches due to inclement weather. However, there were reports of human triggered avalanches to size 2.5 below 1800 m. Of note, a size 2.5 was remotely triggered from 50 m away. We anticipate continued human triggering of persistent slab avalanches on the surface hoar layer that was buried in early January.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of new snow has been added to a 40-60 cm persistent slab which overlays a variety of surfaces including large surface hoar, sun crusts, and facets. This slab is ripe for human triggers and is especially touchy below 1800 m. Expect fresh wind slabs sitting on top of old snow surfaces on lee features in the alpine. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.