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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2022–Mar 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Storm slabs may remain reactive to human triggering where they sit over a suncrust or surface hoar. Assess the snowpack carefully before stepping out onto open slopes.

Weather Forecast

A brief break Friday gives way to another pulse of snow for the weekend.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy, Alpine low -6*C, moderate SW ridgetop wind

Fri: Isolated flurries, high -5*C, Freezing level (FZL) 1500m, light SW wind

Sat: Flurries (10cm), low -8*C, high -3*C, FZL 1700m, mod SW wind

Sun: Clear periods, low -13*C, High -6*C, FZL 1200m

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow has been piling up (45-70cm of settled snow since Mar 11th). Solar aspects treeline and below have a series of suncrusts below the storm snow (the most recent - Mar 11th - remains reactive). On shaded aspects several layers of small surface hoar may be found in the upper-mid snowpack; March 7 (down ~70cm); Feb 26 (90cm); and Feb 15 (>1m)

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a group at the top of Rogers run triggered a size 2 slab avalanche (Mar 11th Suncrust) that nearly hit a group below.

On Wednesday; there was natural acitivity up to size 3; several size 2-3 artillery controlled avalanches; and a field team triggered a size 1.0 slab on a S slope that failed on the Mar 11th suncrust.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.