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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2022–Mar 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Storm slabs continue to be reactive to human triggering at treeline and in the alpine. They may be touchier on leeward slopes due to wind loading. At lower elevations, loose wet avalanches are possible with high freezing levels and a rain soaked snow pack.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Change is in the air with an unstable airmass bringing convective, spring-like weather. Generally, overcast skies and a drying trend will exist Thursday. The ridge should set up by Friday with clearing skies and light northwest winds.   

Wednesday Night: 5-10 cm of new snow above 1000 m and rain below. Freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and moderate southwesterly wind at ridgetop. 

Thursday: Cloudy skies. Convective flurries up to 10 cm, rain below 1000 m. Light northwest wind and freezing levels 1000 to 1500 m. 

Friday: Sunny skies with spring-like (diurnal) freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and rising to 1500 m during the day. Ridgetop wind moderate from the northwest. 

Avalanche Summary

No new reports on Wednesday. 

On Tuesday, a skier triggered storm slab size 1 was reported from a northeast aspect at treeline. Wet loose avalanches were easily triggered below treeline up to size 1. 

On Monday, several storm slabs were reported up to size 2. This followed a widespread natural storm slab avalanche cycle on Sunday. Skier-controlled storm slabs were triggering remotely and propagating widely at treeline and below as shown in this MIN report. Natural avalanche activity will likely continue through Wednesday with reactive storm slabs in the alpine and upper treeline and loose wet avalanches below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of new snow storm snow has become saturated by rain to mountain top on the North Shore range. Upper treeline and areas with alpine may still hold dryer snow and reactive storm slabs. The recent snow sits over a variety of weak surfaces including facets, surface hoar and sun crust, to which it appeared to be bonding poorly initially during the storm. 

50-80 cm below the surface, a 30cm thick crust caps the underlying snowpack which is well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.