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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2022–Apr 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

A firm, supportive, upper snowpack makes avalanches unlikely. If you see evidence of new snow, watch for isolated pockets of reactive windslab in the alpine. Bring your crampons and ice axes.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Very light snow/rain expected. Light southwest ridgetop wind, ramping up to moderate. Freezing level falls to around 900 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Light to moderate snow/rain expected, 2-5 cm above treeline. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1100 m.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Light to moderate snow/rain expected. Light southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong by the afternoon. Freezing level falling to 700 m overnight rising back to 1100 m through the day.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Moderate to heavy snow/rain expected. 5-20 cm above treeline, more on the west side of the island. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday or Thursday before 4 pm.

On Tuesday, loose wet avalanche activity tapered off as the temperature dropped, and the sun went behind the clouds.  

If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions, avalanche observations, or even just funny stories to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network.  

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow may cover a melt freeze crust that exists over moist snow to mountain top. The crust may break down as temperatures rise through the day, and on steep, south facing slopes during sunny periods.

At treeline and above, another, thicker crust 10 cm below the snow surface is limiting loose wet avalanches to the near-surface snow. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.