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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2022–Mar 24th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Pay close attention to the quality of freeze overnight. If temperatures do not get as cold as forecast, danger levels may be higher. Danger levels are also increased by solar radiation at this time of year, so pay close attention to the aspect that you are on. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday was HOTTTT but that is supposed to change on Thrusday as temperatures begin to drop and become more seasonal. Overnight lows around -8C are expected that will re-freeze the wet snowpack that has occurred the past few days. With that being said, snow is forecast to fall overnight with amount between 5-10cm so the quality of the freeze may not be a good as expected. Thursday the key things to observe will be the morning temperatures and quality of overnight freeze before heading into the day. 

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches up to sz 2 were seen on all aspects up to treeline as well as slab avalanches up to sz 2 from thin rocky solar aspects. These avalanche were generally running to the tops of their normal runouts. 

Snowpack Summary

The freezing level on Thursday was quite high! Moist snow was encountered up to 3100m on solar aspects and only true north polar aspects had dry snow. Crusts on solar aspects will be the norm now and dry snow only will be found up high in the alpine on the polar sides. Watch for isolated windslabs in alpine terrain Also be thinking how quickly stability will deteriorate on solar aspects when the sun comes out. Thin, steep solar aspects will be important things to keep in mind as well as overhead cornices. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.