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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2022–Mar 11th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

New snow will soften conditions but may also form slabs over the day. Don't forget about the lurking weak layer that could still be triggered.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, trace accumulation, 20 to 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -6 C.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 cm, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Wednesday. Two more persistent slab avalanches were triggered by riders on Tuesday. They occurred at treeline and alpine elevations on a northeast aspect, similar to the trend of previous avalanches. It remains possible that humans could trigger this layer, where it exists.

Looking forward, new wind slabs will start out small but will continue to grow over the day. Steep, lee terrain features should be entered cautiously.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and strong southwest wind will begin to form new wind slabs in lee terrain features. The snow will build on a thin layer of variably wind affected, faceted snow or surface hoar that overlies a hard melt-freeze crust found on all aspects below around 1500 m and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. The snow will fall onto previously wind-affected and faceted snow on shaded slopes above 1500 m.

Around 40 to 80 cm deep, a weak layer of sugary faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in February. This layer has produced about one or two human-triggered avalanches per day over the past week. Activity has been most prevalent on north to northeast aspects between 1600 m and 2100 m. Check out this forecaster blog for more info.

There are no deeper concerns at this time.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.