Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Heavy snowfall, strong winds, and warm temperatures are a recipe for dangerous avalanches conditions. Expect to find touchy storm slabs, particularly in wind-loaded terrain.

If you see less than 25 cm of new snow, treat the avalanche danger as considerable.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

A strong pacific system will impact the region on Friday evening, bringing moderate to heavy precipitation and strong winds. Active weather will continue into the weekend, with a clearing trend forecast for early next week.

Friday Overnight: Mixed precipitation, 5-20 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. Freezing level around 1500 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds. 

Saturday: Continued snowfall, 5-20 cm of accumulation. Freezing level around 1000 m. Moderate to strong southwesterly winds.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light snowfall. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom with alpine temperatures around -10 C. Light northwesterly winds.

Monday: Mainly clear. Alpine temperatures plummeting into the -20s. Light northeasterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

As the winds picked up on Thursday, operators in the south of the region reported numerous small skier-triggered wind slabs failing easily on the old hard surface.

On Wednesday, several wind slabs and storm slab avalanches were reported up to size 2. These failed in the recent storm snow and didn't step down to deeper layers. 

Last weekend, sledders near Blue River remote triggered several large slab avalanches on shaded aspects at treeline. The failure plane of these avalanches is uncertain, but large remote triggered avalanches would make us suspect it failed on the late January buried surface hoar. Photos from this incident can be seen here.

Snowpack Summary

Continued snowfall throughout Saturday will add to 15-40 cm of recent storm snow above the old surface. This surface is comprised of facetted snow, a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations, a sun-crust on steep solar aspects, and hard wind-affected snow in the alpine and exposed treeline. 

Digging deeper in the snowpack another weak interface exists of primarily surface hoar/crust now buried up to 120 cm. With new load testing the snowpack, this is on our radar. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline. Terrain features to be suspect of includes the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. It is possible that new snow loading and warming may wake this weak layer up, initiating surprisingly large avalanches.  

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Shooting cracks, whumphs and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.