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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 19th, 2022–Mar 20th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Reactive wind slabs may exist at upper elevations. Pay attention to changing conditions with elevation and aspect.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snowing, trace to 10 cm of accumulation. Moderate to strong westerly winds. 1800 m freezing level dropping to 500 m.

SUNDAY: Partially cloudy with the potential for scattered flurries. Light to moderate westerly winds. Freezing level rising to 1400 m in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, up to 5 cm of accumulation. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Freezing level rising to 1500 m in the afternoon.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy, light flurries. Moderate to strong westerly winds. Freezing level rising to 3000 m in the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

Wind slab avalanches are possible in the alpine and exposed areas at treeline.

A natural cycle occurred during Tuesday's storm. The cycle involved many size 2 storm slab avalanches at upper elevations and wet loose avalanches below treeline. Storm snow was still reactive to explosives on Friday and Thursday, but looking forward avalanches will be most likely on wind-loaded slopes.

Snowpack Summary

10-15 cm of recent snowfall overlies 20 to 40 cm of heavy powder at upper elevations, while warm temperatures have left moist and crusty surfaces below roughly 1800 m. The upper snowpack contains several crust layers, and the snow is well bonded to these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect and exposure to wind.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.