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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos, Blue River, Clearwater, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Clemina, North Monashee, Renshaw, Robson.

Watch out for areas where avalanches are more likely, like exposed terrain where the wind is consolidating the new snow into a slab. Back off into simple terrain as snowfall amounts increase and the snow starts to consolidate.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several natural very large avalanches were reported in neighboring regions to the south that failed down to the deep persistent weak layer found near the base of the snowpack.

Reports of natural and cornice-triggered wind slabs continue to trickle in reminding us that human triggering of these layers remains possible.

Going forward new snow and continued winds will build new wind slabs over old wind slabs that remain reactive to large loads.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 15 to 20 cm of new snow will accumulate throughout the day. This new snow is coupled with moderate to strong southwest winds that will be developing touchy new wind slabs at treeline and alpine elevations. Below this, the upper snowpack continues to settle and bond to previous surfaces.

The mid-pack is showing signs of strengthening. A surface hoar layer down roughly 60 to 80 cm has not produced avalanches recently but can still be found in isolated terrain features specifically sheltered, treeline, and upper below treeline.

The lower snowpack is composed of large and weak facets from November located near the base of the snowpack. Additional load or step-down avalanches over the next few days may wake this layer up.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Clouds increase overnight with snowfall, accumulation of 2 to 5 cm, 10 to 20 km/h southwest winds, and treeline temperatures -9 °C.

Thursday

Mainly cloudy, 10 to 15 cm new snow, 30 to 40 km/h south winds, treeline temperatures -10 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with flurries increasing overnight, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -10 °C

Saturday

Cloudy with snowfall, 5 to 10 cm accumulation, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.