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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2023–Feb 15th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass.

With snow available for transport and increasing winds riders should anticipate slopes where wind slabs may exist by monitoring the wind direction. Use ridges and ribs to descend to a lower line that avoids a wind-loaded entry point.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several size 2.5 to 3 explosive-controlled wind slab avalanches were reported southwest of Tumbler Ridge.

The basal snowpack remains questionable and should still figure into terrain selection around steep features with shallow or variable snowpack areas where these layers may be more easily triggered by a person or machine as well as large wind slab or cornice releases.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfalls have accumulated roughly 30 to 50 cm and seem to be bonding to previous surfaces. In open terrain, isolated wind slabs can be found directly lee of terrain features on all aspects in the alpine due to variable winds. Cornices have also been built at upper elevations.

The mid-pack is gaining strength and consists of rounding facets and melt-freeze crusts that are starting to degrade.

Near the base of the snowpack, a persistent weak layer composed of large and weak facets formed in November is strengthening slowly. This layer is most likely to be triggered in thin, rocky alpine and upper treeline terrain.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Increasing cloud, 15 to 20 km/h west winds increasing overnight, treeline temperatures -12 °C

Wednesday

Increasing cloud, flurries starting mid-morning 2 to 5 cm new snow, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -6 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with snow accumulations of 10 to 15 cm, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -7 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with continued flurries and 5 to 10 cm accumulations, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -10 °C

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.