Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2026–Feb 5th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard, Moyie, St. Mary.

Warm temperatures continue to consolidate the upper snowpack into cohesive slabs atop a widespread, persistent weak layer.

Confidence

Moderate

We are uncertain due to the timing or intensity of warming will affect the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred over the weekend with numerous slab avalanches up to size 2, primarily on north though east aspects at treeline and above. These all appeared to fail on the late-January surface hoar/crust/facet layer outlined in the snowpack summary.

Since the natural avalanche cycle, several small (size 1 to 1.5) human-triggered avalanches have been reported on a variety of aspects at treeline and above.

Snowpack Summary

Generally, refrozen and crusty surfaces are expected by Thursday morning, although in some areas the surface snow may remain moist if a full overnight freeze does not occur.

With above-freezing temperatures and sunny skies, moist snow is expected on all aspects and at all elevations by Thursday afternoon.

Approximately 10 to 40 cm of recent snow continues to settle into cohesive slabs over the late-January weak layer. This layer consists of a melt-freeze crust of variable thickness, with a possibility of surface hoar on top and faceted snow above and/or below the crust.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled, with no significant concerns.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Mostly clear skies. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 3300 m.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 3600 m.

Friday
Mostly sunny. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 3300 m.

Saturday
Mostly sunny. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2100 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

The more the snowpack warms up and weakens, the more conservative your terrain selection should be.
Remote triggering is a concern; avoid terrain where triggering overhead slopes is possible.
Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.