Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2026–Mar 3rd, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Coquihalla, Harrison-Fraser, Manning, Skagit.

Multiple large, human-triggered persistent slabs have occurred in the past few days.

Choose conservative low-angle terrain with no overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Persistent slabs could become more likely with the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, a size 2 persistent slab was remote triggered in Allison Pass. Details here.

A serious avalanche accident occurred Saturday on Thar Peak. 3 skiers were bootpacking up a couloir when they triggered a size 3 persistent slab. All were partially buried and sustained serious injuries.

Another size 2 persistent slab was remote triggered on Thar Peak Saturday.

See photos for details.

Looking forward, large human-triggered persistent slab remains the main concern.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of new snow will arrive by Tuesday afternoon, accompanied by strong southerly winds. This new snow overlies a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and lower elevations, and wind-affected surfaces at higher elevations.

A persistent weak layer consisting of a crust/ facet layer from late January can be found 40 to 60 cm deep across the region. This layer has been reactive in recent days.

The snowpack below is strong and well-bonded.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Partly cloudy. 1 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy. 10 to 20 cm of snow at treeline. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow or rain at treeline. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
Remote triggering is a big concern, be aware of the potential for wide propagations and large, destructive avalanches at all elevations.
If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers, causing larger avalanches.
Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.