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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2024–Jan 6th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, North Monashee.

Be prepared to dial back your terrain choice and keep an eye out for signs of instability.

Storm slab size and sensitivity could increase throughout the day.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No significant avalanches have been reported in the region in the past few days. Avalanche activity will likely increase with the incoming weather.

If you are out in the backcountry please consider filling out a MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40 cm of recent snow is forming storm slabs at all elevations. A variety of surfaces are found below this new snow including surface hoar in sheltered terrain and a crust below 1600 m.

A layer of surface hoar down roughly 60 to 120 cm remains problematic despite a lack of recent signs of reactivity. A hard crust above this layer is likely protecting it from human-triggering at lower elevations.

Weak basal facets characterize the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with up to 15 cm of new snow expected, south alpine wind 25 to 40 km/h, treeline temperature -6°C.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of new snow expected, south alpine wind 15 to 25 km/h, treeline temperature -7°C.

Sunday

Mostly sunny with no new snow expected, west alpine wind 15 to 25 km/h, treeline temperature -10°C.

Monday

A mix of sun and cloud with trace amounts of new snow expected, west alpine wind 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature -11°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Choose relatively conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.