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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2024–Jan 2nd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Robson.

Despite a decrease in avalanche hazard, the presence of multiple weak layers deep within the snowpack remains a cause for concern.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A large (size 3), naturally triggered deep persistent slab avalanche in alpine terrain was reported Saturday. It occurred just north of Glacier National Park.

Have a look at this blog post that highlights several recent, similar large avalanches occurring on layers deep within the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is generally well-settled and consolidated with no significant layers of concern.

A layer of surface hoar down roughly 50 to 90 cm remains problematic despite many recent signs of reactivity. A hard crust above this layer likely protects it from human-triggering at lower elevations.

Weak basal facets characterize the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mostly cloudy with no precipitation, southwest alpine winds 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature - 7 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with no precipitation, south alpine winds 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -7 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with trace snow amounts, south alpine winds 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -6 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with trace snow amounts, southwest alpine winds 10 to 30 km/h, treeline temperature -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.