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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2023–Dec 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Chic-Choc Mountains.

A major system will pass over the Chic-Chocs on Sunday night and last until Tuesday morning. A mix of rain, snow and freezing rain is expected, but the quantities of each are uncertain.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Early season, observations are limited. Thanks for sharing your observation through the Mountain Information Network if you head out.

No new avalanches have been observed or reported. Please share your observations at [email protected] or via the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack will undergo major changes over the next 24 to 36 hours, depending on the amount of rain, snow and freezing rain that falls. Snow depths vary from 30 to 70 cm, depending on altitude and wind loading. 10 to 20 cm of snow covers the November 28th crust. Facets are developing on the crust.

Weather Summary

Synopsis: A major system will affect the Chic-Chocs over the next few days from Sunday to Tuesday. Weather models vary widely on the expected amounts of rain versus snow versus ice.

Sunday evening and night: Up to 15 mm of rain. Light southwesterly wind, 10 to 15 km/h. Maximum +4. Freezing level passing from 2500m to 800m in the evening.

Monday: Heavy rain during the day (between 15 and 50 mm depending on models). Precipitation changing to snow and/or freezing rain in the evening. Light winds of variable direction. Maximum +2. Freezing level rising to 2500m, falling to 500m by afternoon.

Tuesday: Clearing. Possibility of light snow. Moderate westerly wind. Maximum -9.

Wednesday: Alternating sun and cloud. Light westerly wind. High -4.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from rain.
  • Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.