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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2016–Mar 2nd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

Touchy and growing storm slabs will keep avalanche danger elevated this week. Riding should be great, but a conservative approach is recommended. Stick to simple terrain.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: A relatively dry day is expected with another few cm of accumulation before tapering off late in the day. Freezing levels are expected to reach 1600m with light southwesterly ridgetop winds. THURSDAY: Periods of snow with 3-5cm of accumulation expected throughout the day. Freezing levels reaching 1800m with light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds. FRIDAY: Another 3-5cm of accumulation expected throughout the day. Freezing levels reaching 2000m with light to moderate southwesterly ridgetop winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Monday include a brief natural wind slab avalanche cycle primarily in the Monashee Mtns., with avalanches up to Size 2.5 running running early Monday morning in response to gusty winds. Elsewhere, 10-40cm thick fresh storm and wind slabs were highly reactive to human triggers with several direct and remotely triggered avalanches up to Size 2. These fresh storm and wind slabs should increase in size and sensitivity and become much more widespread as they build throughout the week.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm thick fresh storm slabs are bonding poorly to on a crust on sun-exposed slopes and surface hoar on shady and sheltered slopes. Thicker and touchier wind slabs are lurking throughout exposed terrain at and above treeline. A weak layer of surface hoar and/or a sun crust buried February 21 is now 50-80cm below the surface. Where it exists, this layer may become reactive to human triggers as the overlying slab develops. The surface hoar and/or crust layer buried February 10 is now down 80-130cm. This layer was less reactive over the weekend with cooler temperatures, but remains a concern for large triggers like cornice falls or a smaller slide in motion. Cornices are large and potentially weak and should be avoided where possible.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.