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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2020–Feb 18th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Sun and warm temperatures have helped the snowpack settle and bond. Keep an eye on sunny slopes warming through the day, move to more shaded terrain and avoid overhead hazards if the surface snow becomes moist or wet.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Alpine low temperature -4 C. North wind 10-15 km/hr. Freezing level 200 m.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Alpine high temperature +3 C. Northeast wind 10-15 km/hr. Freezing level 1100 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Alpine high temperature +5 C. South wind 15-30 km/hr. Freezing level 1900 m.

THURSDAY: Sun with increasing cloud. Alpine high temperature +3 C. Southwest wind 15-25 km/hr. Freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, slab avalanches up to size 2 were triggered by skiers as storm slabs 20-40 cm thick slid on the crust. 

Snowpack Summary

New snow over the weekend has settled with sun and warm temperatures. Isolated pockets of wind slab may still be found in lee terrain at the highest elevations.

The snowpack is well settled and includes a a thick rain crust sits 50-60 cm below the surface. Snowpack depths are in the range of 200-250 cm around the peaks of the North Shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.