Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Feb 17 – 18, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

The Tonquin Area is officially open for winter travel. Use caution as this is typically more shallow and therefore a weaker snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong SW winds in the alpine and higher RH values are likely creating wind slabs.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The likelihood of triggering increases with warming temperatures and solar input. Isolated, sheltered features that have not been impacted by winds are susceptible to sluffing and loose dry avalanches. Ice climbers be aware of these features.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

      Caution in thin snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature: High -13 C. Ridge wind NW: 10 km/h.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature: Low -16 C, High -12 C. Ridge wind southwest: 10 km/h.

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Precipitation: Trace. Alpine temperature: Low -16 C, High -10 C. Ridge wind SW: 15-35 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong SW winds and higher humidity are likely creating wind slabs in the alpine on lee features. The upper snowpack has facetted from the recent cold temperatures and overlies a supportive mid-pack, except in shallow areas where the entire snowpack is weak and facetted.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday one sz 3 avalanche (wind slab) observed from extreme, alpine, north aspect terrain. No other avalanches observed.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Regions covered