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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2021–Feb 17th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

The Tonquin Area is officially open for winter travel. Use caution as this is typically more shallow and therefore a weaker snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature: High -13 C. Ridge wind NW: 10 km/h.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature: Low -16 C, High -12 C. Ridge wind southwest: 10 km/h.

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Precipitation: Trace. Alpine temperature: Low -16 C, High -10 C. Ridge wind SW: 15-35 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong SW winds and higher humidity are likely creating wind slabs in the alpine on lee features. The upper snowpack has facetted from the recent cold temperatures and overlies a supportive mid-pack, except in shallow areas where the entire snowpack is weak and facetted.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday one sz 3 avalanche (wind slab) observed from extreme, alpine, north aspect terrain. No other avalanches observed.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.