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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2021–Jan 12th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

The region is primed and overdue for a significant avalanche cycle.

New snowfall and strong SW winds forecast for the next two days. Be extra cautious, especially in open areas though-out the region.

Weather Forecast

A strong, moisture laced, southwest flow continues to provide steady snowfall in the Jasper forecast region, especially in the Columbia Icefields. Strong SW winds continue to build reactive wind-slabs on N through E aspects. Forecasts calling for a further 15cm for Tuesday, and 17cm Wednesday. Temps steady between -12 and -8, warming up by Weds. 

Snowpack Summary

Strong SW winds have been aggressively distributing surface snow on N through E aspects, at all elevations but especially in the alpine and open tree-line. The mid-pack is supportive except in shallow locations and regions like the Maligne range. The bottom is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity observed or reported.

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Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.