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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2021–Jan 11th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Yukon.

Avoid ridge crest & rock outcroppings in the alpine where you're most likely to trigger hard slabs. Softer slabs at treeline may rest on buried surface hoar making them surprisingly touchy. More snow and wind is on the way which is expected to exacerbate the wind slab problem.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Quite a bit of snow and wind in store for the forecast period. We’ll be watching these snowfall amounts closely.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, strong south wind, 2 to 5 cm cm of snow possible.

SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, strong south/southeast wind, 2 to 10 cm possible during the day with another 2 to potentially as much as 15 cm Sunday night.

MONDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, strong south/southwest wind, 5 to 15 cm of snow possible.

TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level at valley bottom, strong south/southeast wind, 5 to 20 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

We received word of a snowmobile triggered wind slab avalanche north of Log Cabin that occurred on Thursday. Sounds like everyone is okay, but the avalanche occurred at treeline in relatively benign terrain which speaks to the reactivity of fresh wind slabs that may rest on surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

Firm slabby snow can now be found in almost all wind exposed terrain. The predominant wind has been from the south but some north wind snuck in Thursday night meaning wind affected snow can be found on all aspects.    

In terrain around treeline there may be fresh wind slab sitting on surface hoar that is capable of producing large human triggered avalanches. See this MIN report that has a snow profile that features surface hoar down 40 cm below the surface.

A buried crust formed in early December can be found 60-100 cm below the surface, but most reports suggest the snow is quite well-bonded to this crust.

The lower snowpack is strong around White Pass, but there is potential for a generally thinner and weaker snowpack structure to exist in inland areas such as the Wheaton Valley. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for wide propagation.
  • Sheltered slopes at lower elevations will offer the best riding.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.