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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Hwy 93 remains closed with tentative opening

Thursday January 14, 2pm.

New snow will need time to settle. Be extremely cautious, use good group travel techniques, and avoid any exposure to terrain traps.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. no precip. Alpine temperature: High -9 °C. Ridge wind west: 10-20 km/h.

Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and light flurries. Alpine temperature: Low -11 °C, High -9 °C. Ridge wind west: 20 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

25cm, and upwards of 55cm storm snow through the forecast region. Jan 12 interface is somewhat of a mystery, possibly a temp or rain crust, FC and/or SH with inconsistent reactivity. All over a supportive mid pack. Basal snowpack is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

Significant natural cycle up to size 3.5, mostly in the Alpine and open features but, significant observations between 2200m and 1800m, mostly S through Westerly aspects.

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Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.