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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2025–Feb 28th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

The snowpack shakedown has begun. Set your exposure to avalanche terrain and overhead hazard to the minimum during the warmup. It might feel like spring, but the snowpack is far from settled.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Two size 2 wind slabs were targeted with explosives on Wednesday in the Castle area. They featured 10 - 30 cm crowns that were noted for containing three distinct wind slab layers from recent loading events.

On Monday, explosives control in the same area produced avalanches to size 2 on east/southeast facing slopes. These involved both storm snow and the buried late-January weak layer, which is expected to remain reactive during the ongoing warmup.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust moist or snow now glazes the surface on solar aspects and, by Friday, below about 2100 m. The depth of affected snow should increase over the coming days and crust recovery may be weak. This process will affect around 30 cm of settling recent snow, which has been redistributed by strong southwest winds at treeline and above.

The main feature of the region's overall shallow snowpack is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January now buried 40 to 60 cm deep (see photo below). This layer is expected to be increasingly reactive as warming tests the snowpack.

Check out this MIN for recent conditions in the Elkford area.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Becoming cloudy. 15 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind, easing. Freezing level falling from 2000 m to 1600 m.

Friday

Mostly sunny. 15 to 20 km/h west ridgetop winds, easing. Freezing level to 2400 m. Treeline temperature 5 °C.

Saturday

Sunny. 20 to 25 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level to 3000 m, rising overnight. Treeline temperature 6 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. 5 to 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level 3200 m - 2800 m. Treeline temperature 7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid freshly wind-loaded features, especially near ridge crests, rollovers, and in steep terrain.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.