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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2022–Jan 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Watch for newly developed wind slabs that may be still reactive to human triggers. Be particularly careful around wind-loaded ridgelines and cross-loaded features mid slope.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

An upper ridge will build along the BC coast overnight into Tuesday morning bringing generally dry conditions.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace of precipitation, 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds, low alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, trace of precipitation, 10-20 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5 cm, 15-25 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

THURSDAY: Snow, accumulation 10-20 cm, 30-50 km/h southwesterly winds, high alpine temperature -2 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy precipitation over the last week has created a variety of surface snow conditions. Recent snowfalls with moderate to strong southwest winds have created pockets of dry snow at alpine and treeline elevations on north through east facing slopes. Precipitation fell as wet snow or rain below 2200m, creating saturated snow that is forming a melt freeze crust with moist snow below. 

Two buried weak layers of sugary, faceted grains sit in the middle and lower snowpack, at 100 cm deep and 150-250 cm deep. The deeper layer was formed by heavy rain followed by a cold spell in early December. It is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. With cooler temperatures, the probability of triggering an avalanche on this layer is low but will increase when freezing levels rise up again. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.