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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2022–Feb 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Human-triggered avalanches are likely on the Jan 29th Surface Hoar layer! Applying conservative terrain choices would be wise with the current conditions!

And we recorded 124km/h Southerly winds on Monday too, so expect wind slabs!

Weather Forecast

Wednesday's forecast is for flurries, moderate westerly winds and a FL of 1600m. Similar weather conditions can be expected for Thursday, but with strong SW winds, and higher freezing levels. Friday we should start to see some more sun and a likely temperature inversion.

Snowpack Summary

Extreme Southerly winds on Monday scoured ridges and loaded up lee terrain features at all elevations. Strong Solar input over the weekend formed sun crusts on steep terrain SE-SW asp. The Jan 29th SH layer is buried ~50-80cm depending on asp and elev. This PWL has been most reactive on polar aspects, but overlies a sun crust on steep solar asp!

Avalanche Summary

Bonney Morraines: Skier accidental x 3 all on the Jan 29th Surface Hoar Layer! Today: SZ 1.5, and the skier was partially buried. Another vague report of a size 1.5. Sunday: SZ 2 in the same vicinity. 

Yesterday: Dome exit skier triggered multiple small slides on the SH layer, and extreme winds triggered a Natural cycle to SZ 2.5 in the HWY.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.