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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2022–Feb 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Wet loose avalanches are becoming less likely, but let the snow surface tell it to you straight. If your steps plunge into slushy wet snow, steep slopes can still release. If a firm crust has set up, avalanche activity is unlikely. Watch for changes with daytime warming.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Mainly clear. Light to moderate northwest winds. Freezing level remaining near 3300 metres

Thursday: Mainly sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +4 with freezing levels falling from 3000 to 2500 metres, remaining elevated overnight.

Friday: Sunny. Light variable winds. Treeline high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels to 2700 metres, remaining elevated overnight.

Saturday: Sunny. Light north winds. Treeline high temperatures around +9 with freezing levels to 3300 metres, remaining elevated overnight.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's transition from snowfall to rain likely initiated numerous small wet loose releases. Larger releases may have occurred in areas that hadn't seen rain over the weekend - mainly higher elevations.

Looking forward, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of surface crust formation. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain where the upper snowpack reaches an isothermal state (wet snow throughout). As surface crusts form and as free water drains from the upper snowpack, this potential will diminish rapidly.

Snowpack Summary

10-30 mm of rain Tuesday evening wet the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of surface crust may occur with clear overnight periods in open areas. Any crust that does form will deteriorate with daytime heating.

Below the surface, a variable 10-60 cm of moist to wet snow and deteriorating crust layers sit on the thick late January crust. This crust extends to mountain tops on all aspects.

The mid and lower snow pack is composed of yet more moist to wet snow that is well settled. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks at or just below the surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.