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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2022–Feb 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Avoid avalanche terrain at treeline where triggering a persistent slab is most likely. This layer can be remotely triggered, think about overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: light snow starting around midnight bringing trace amounts of snow. Strong southwest winds and a low of -1 at 1400m. 

Monday: stormy weather with 5 to 10cm of snow and moderate to strong west winds. Freezing levels around 1300m.

Tuesday: light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Strong west winds and freezing levels around 1300m.

Wednesday: sunny with no snow expected. Moderate northwest winds and freezing levels rising to 3000m.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday in the South Coast Inland region a fatal size 3 skier triggered avalanche was reported in the Duffy Lake area. It ran on the persistent weak layer from late January. This avalanche was triggered in a upper treeline feature on a northeast aspect and showed significant propagation. Click here to read a more detailed report. This is the same layer that was responsible for a skier triggered size 2.5 avalanche last week on Rainbow mountain. Several smaller skier triggered avalanches on this layer were also reported throughout the week. Most of the avalanche activity on this layer has taken place between 1800m and 2000m but it can be found above and below this elevation band. 

On Friday and Saturday several skier triggered size one wind slab avalanches were reported. These avalanches were triggered in steep features just below ridge crests at treeline and above.

Snowpack Summary

New wind slabs could form throughout the day on Monday on Easterly slopes. As temperatures fall a new crust could form on all aspects below treeline and on south facing slopes in treeline and above.

10 to 20 cm of snow with moderate to strong southwest winds on Friday have formed wind slab on north and east aspects in the treeline and alpine.

A layer of facets on a crust is now buried down 30 to 70 cm. This layer is widespread between 1800 m and 2000 m, but could be found above and below this elevation band. It has produced several human and remote triggered avalanches in the past few days. In sheltered terrain at treeline and above surface hoar can also be found on this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Extra caution is needed around cornices under the current conditions.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.