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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2022–Jan 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Warm temperatures will prevent the snowpack from gaining strength after this rainfall. Human triggered wet avalanches are still possible at all elevations. Use caution where you encounter heavy, wet surface snow. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

The wet weather finally exits Thursday. Expect warm temperatures to continue Thursday before finally cooling off for the weekend.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing levels drop to 1700 m overnight, with 10-20 mm mixed precipitation expected by 6 am. Isolated areas in the south of the region may see up to 40 mm of rain. Light to moderate southerly winds.

THURSDAY: Finally the precipitation eases off early morning with clearing skies and isolated flurries. Freezing levels rise to 2500 m mid afternoon with no significant precipitation expected and light easterly winds. 

FRIDAY: Freezing levels fall from 2500 m to 1500 m over the day with isolated flurries. Winds increase to strong from the southwest once again.  

SATURDAY: Freezing levels remain around 1500 m for the day, with a mix of sun and cloud bringing isolated flurries. Moderate westerly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

We have limited observations on the results of this storm due to the intense weather.

A natural avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred at all elevations with the heavy rain, snow and wind with rising temperatures over Tuesday and Wednesday. 

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow at all elevations. As temperatures cool the wet surface snow will likely form a thick surface crust. 

A series of crusts from recent rain and warmer temperatures are present up to 1400 m in the upper snowpack. These may be breaking down due to the recent rainfall, however while intact they also form a smooth bed surface for wet avalanches. 

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.