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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 4th, 2022–Feb 5th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Human triggering of large avalanches will remain very likely on Saturday, particularly where recent snow is loading a buried weak layer.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 30 to 50 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level 1100 m.

SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1700 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

We haven't received reports from Friday but suspect that both natural and rider-triggered avalanches occurred during the stormy weather. Large avalanches are expected in areas where the buried surface hoar described in the Snowpack Summary exists. 

Looking towards Saturday, Avoidance of avalanche terrain is your best bet for having a safe day. Storm and wind slabs will be very touchy due to all the recent snow and wind. Rain at low elevations will also quickly destabilize the storm snow. The snow will need time to stabilize.

Snowpack Summary

Storm totals are expected to reach around 30 to 50 cm by the end of Saturday. The snow has likely formed storm slabs in sheltered areas and wind slabs in lee terrain features from strong southwest wind. These slabs will remain touchy for the remainder of the weekend as the freezing level rises and the air gets warmer.

The snow will be particularly touchy where it is loading a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. This layer is likely anywhere from 50 to 100 cm deep. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features to treat as suspect include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. On south aspects, a melt-freeze crust may exist instead of surface hoar.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.