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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 24th, 2021–Dec 25th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Southwest winds and light snowfall will continue to create reactive slabs in wind effected terrain features. Buried weak layers still show unpredictable triggering - avoid steep unsupported slopes and areas where the snowpack rapidly thins.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the complexity of the snowpack’s structure.

Weather Forecast

Arctic air pushes south into the interior, mixing with a low pressure system off the coast of Vancouver. Temperatures will steadily drop but expect a daily refresh of low density snow through to Boxing Day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Up to 5cm overnight. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine low of -10. 

SATURDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, 2-5cm over the day and another 5-10cm overnight. Accumulations will favour the south - Kokanee Glacier area. Moderate gusting strong southerly winds. Alpine high of -8. 

SUNDAY: Up to 5cm over the day, and another 5cm possible overnight with easing winds, shifting west. Alpine highs of -15.

MONDAY: Clearing skies with increasing westerly winds. Alpine high of -20. 

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday a natural slab cycle was observed to size 2 at all elevations throughout the region. Natural activity occured in the storm snow, and on the recently buried surface hoar. 

Slabs were also very easily triggered by skiers and riders, observed to size 2 on all aspects. A sympathetic size 1 was observed in a below treeline feature, failing on the surface hoar indicating very sensitive avalanche conditions.

Another notable result was a skier triggered persistent slab avalanche, failing on the early December crust/facet interface that has been lurking in the snowpack with unpredictable results. The slab was 80cm deep, and occurred on a southwest facing unsupported treeline slope. This indicates that this layer is still a concern for human triggering - conservative terrain choices are the best defence against this tricky problem. 

If head into the mountains, please submit your findings and photos through a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40cm of fresh storm snow has accumulated this week. In the alpine and exposed treeline elevations it has been redistributed into deeper deposits in wind loaded features by southwest winds.

At lower elevations the settling storm snow may sit over a weak surface hoar layer, which is creating reactive conditions to human triggers. The surface hoar is most likely to be found on sheltered slopes at treeline and below.

The crust formed by the early December rain event sits 70-150cm deep and is found up to 2400m in the South Columbia's. In most terrain the snow above is well bonded to the crust. Additionally, in areas where the crust is buried deeper than one meter, it has begun to decompose and shows limited reactivity.

However in some areas, weak faceted grains have been observed above - creating a weak interface that is still reactive to human triggers This is most common at treeline elevations where the crust is thinner. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid rock outcroppings, convexities, and anywhere the snowpack is thin and/or variable.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.