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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2026–Jan 2nd, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Esplanade, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary.

Watch for reactive wind slabs at higher elevations, especially where the snowpack is thin or variable. In these areas, avalanches could step down to buried crusts and facets.

Confidence

High

  • Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
  • Uncertainty is due to the complexity of the snowpack’s structure.

Avalanche Summary

A size 1.5 skier-triggered avalanche occurred in the backcountry near Panorama on Wednesday. This avalanche occurred in a very shallow area (roughly 50 cm deep), likely failing on facets near the base of the snowpack. Check out the MIN report here.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow is continuing to settle and strengthen. In exposed alpine and treeline areas, wind-affected surfaces remain. On steep, south-facing slopes, a thin sun crust is likely.

In the mid-snowpack, a melt-freeze crust exists that was buried in mid-December. This layer is most prevalent at treeline elevations and below.

The lower snowpack consists of a thick melt-freeze crust, with weak faceted snow and/or depth hoar near the ground in areas.

Snow depths vary widely across the region, averaging roughly 100 to 200 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Trace amounts of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. Trace amounts of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 10 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and rollovers.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.