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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2026–Jan 4th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Clemina, Renshaw, Robson.

Storm slab size and reactivity to triggers will increase as the new snow or rain accumulates

Fall back to simple terrain as conditions worsen

Confidence

Moderate

  • Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday

  • A naturally triggered size 2.5 avalanche was observed in the Northern Cariboos.

On Wednesday

  • Numerous loose dry sluffs out of extreme terrain were observed southwest of Valemount. They were up to size 2 and likely triggered by wind or sun.

  • Looking forward: The likelihood of both human and natural-triggered avalanches is expected to rise as storm snow accumulates on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

15 to 40 cm has recently fallen in the region. An additional 5 to 20 cm is expected by Saturday afternoon. There is a chance of rain below 1400 m, which could cause wet loose avalanches.

Combined with forecast strong southerly winds, the new snow will continue building reactive storm slabs. These slabs will likely be deeper and more reactive on wind-loaded lee slopes near ridgetops.

The prominent mid-December crust is buried up to 110 cm deep and extends to 2200 m. Triggering the crust is considered unlikely, except with large loads or in thin snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Cloudy. 4 to 10 cm of snow. 35 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Sunday
Cloudy. 2 to 10 cm of snow. 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.

Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. 4 to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.

Tuesday
Cloudy. 5 to 15 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Watch for rapidly changing conditions during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • As the storm slab problem worsens, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.