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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2023–Jan 18th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Pine Pass.

**UPDATED 6:40 AM** New snow and wind have created dangerous avalanche conditions around Pine Pass.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Sunday or Monday. On Saturday, a large (size 2) avalanche was observed at Hassler. It was potentially remotely triggered by a snowmobiler, and propagated widely across a sparsely treed slope. Several natural storm slab and wet loose avalanches occurred during the stormy weather on Friday.

Although there has been a decline in observed avalanche activity, triggering a large persistent slab avalanche remains possible and terrain should be chosen with care.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is gradually accumulating above settled snow from last week's warm storm. At lower elevations, a rain crust exists near the surface, with reported elevations extending up roughly 1200 m.

Snowpack depths are shallower than normal, and several buried weak layers have been a concern over the past few weeks. One is a recently buried surface hoar layer found 20 to 40 cm deep in sheltered terrain features at treeline and above. At this same depth, a crust exists on steep south facing slopes. Another layer of facets, crust, and surface hoar was buried around Christmas and is now 40 to 70 cm deep. Finally, a layer of large, weak facets buried in November is found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets.

Recent observations suggest the buried weak layers are gaining strength, but not enough to trust them in high consequence terrain.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy with periods of snow, 10 to 20 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -5 °C with freezing level around 1000 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 1 to 5 cm of snow, 50 km/h southwest wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -4 °C.

Thursday

Cold front passes in the early morning with 5 to 10 cm of new snow then some sunny breaks in the afternoon, 30 to 50 km/h west wind, freezing level drops to valley bottom with treeline temperatures drop to -8 °C.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, scattered flurries with 1 to 5 cm of snow, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1200 m with treeline temperatures warming to -3 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.