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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2023–Jan 15th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Grohman, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Shuswap, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, North Okanagan, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Stick to simple terrain and give the storm snow time to settle. Even if you don't see signs of instability several layers in the snowpack could still be sensitive to rider traffic.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday A natural avalanche cycle on all aspects and elevations to size 3.5 occurred throughout the Selkirks and Monashees.

In addition to the natural avalanches there was also several skier remotes, accidentals and ski cuts. These avalanches were generally up to size 2 and were triggered on one of the 2 surface hoar layers buried in January.

Snowpack Summary

A recent layer of surface hoar and a crust on south facing slopes can be found under 20 to 60cm of new dense storm snow at treeline and above. Wind slabs exist on North, west and east facing terrain at treeline and above. As the freezing level falls a new crust will form below 1800m.

There are 4 additional weak layers in the snowpack. In General this years snowpack is complicated, weak and shallow.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with flurries bringing up to 5cm of new snow. Light southerly winds. Low of -5 at 1800m.

Sunday

Cloudy with flurries bringing up to 5cm of new snow. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -4 at 1800m.

Monday

Cloudy with flurries bringing up to 10cm of new snow. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -3 at 1800m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southerly winds and a high of -3 at 1800m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.