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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Northwest Inland, Stewart, Kispiox, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

The avalanche danger will increase as a storm moves in through the day. Choose mellow slopes and give the snowpack time to adjust to the new load. Avoid shallow, rocky start zones. Uncertainty about deeper weak layers demands vigilance, and careful terrain selection.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend, east of Kispiox, a couple of small, rider triggered avalanches were reported. Both started as thin storm slabs failing on a layer of weak, feathery, surface hoar crystals. One of the two stepped down to a layer of weak, sugary, facetted crystals that were buried on December 23rd.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh snow will be falling mostly on 20-50 cm of settled snow. In sheltered areas, a layer of weak, feathery surface hoar crystals buried in early January will now be 40-70 cm below the surface. Expect a shallower, weaker snowpack in wind exposed terrain, due to previous scouring by southeast through southwest wind.

Several persistent weak layers may be found in the top meter of the snowpack. These include a surface hoar layer buried on Dec 28 found 40 to 80 cm deep and a facet layer buried on Dec 23 found 60 to 100 cm deep. In alpine terrain, triggering one of these layers is most likely on steep rocky slopes where they present as facets. In treeline terrain, the layers are most likely triggered on steep slopes in open trees where they present as preserved surface hoar.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light to moderate south alpine wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C.

Tuesday

Cloudy. Possible clear periods in the north end of the forecast area. 5-20 cm of snow expected. Higher amounts are in the south west quarter of the forecast area. Alpine wind moderate to strong from the southeast. Treeline temperature around -5°C.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, possible clear periods. Moderate to heavy snowfall possible, different models suggest the bulk of the snow could come either tuesday or wednesday. Moderate southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature around -5°C.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy. 2-5 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature around -10ºC

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.