Spring conditions means you should anticipate a daily cycle of loose snow avalanches on south-facing slopes.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
This region should remain dry from Monday through Wednesday. Freezing levels will be around 2000 m on Monday, with sunshine through high cloud. On Tuesday, freezing levels will go to around 2800 m and on Wednesday as high as 3000 m. Winds are expected to be light southeasterly throughout the period.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday a large (size 3) naturally-triggered avalanche released on a southwest aspect at 2300 m. The avalanche initiated in a shallow rocky start zone and initially pulled out the recent storm snow before stepping down to lower layers, in some places scouring all the way to ground. Another large (size 2.5) avalanche occurred on a northwest aspect at 2300 m and ran all the way to ground.
Snowpack Summary
40-80 cm of recent storm snow is sitting on a reactive weak layer over a crust. This weak layer was buried March 27th in the Interior. Initially, we had many reports of large, destructive avalanches occurring on this layer, although the frequency of these events has been diminishing. However, this layer still needs to be closely monitored, especially since the crust could help channel moisture produced by the warm spring-time temperatures. There is a good chance that wet slabs could release on the crust during prolonged periods of warm temperatures and/or sunshine. Lower elevation slopes continue to experience little or no overnight refreeze (recovery). The deeper early February surface hoar layers have been unreactive recently but still remain a concern with prolonged spring warming and very heavy triggers such as a cornice fall, or step down avalanches.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.