Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Miette Lake.

Natural activity has been reduced but don't be lulled into a false sense of security. Human triggering remains possible.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

There were no new avalanches observed on Sunday's Icefield's patrol and visibility was good. There was evidence of a natural cycle up to Size 3 on Friday. Better visibility on Saturday showed continued evidence of this cycle yet less activity. Some avalanches initiated with cornice failures or in a surface Wind Slab stepping down to the basal facets.

If you're out in the hills, don't forget to post to the MIN. Every bit of information helps

Snowpack Summary

5cm of new snow since Friday. There is a crust below 1800m. A layer of surface hoar and facets is down 20-40cm in sheltered areas. Large facets and depth hoar comprise the bottom portion of the snowpack. Snowpack depths vary from 50-100cm.

Weather Summary

Monday is expected to be cloudy and flurries, -7 °C, and light Southwest winds. Tuesday will be very similar. Wednesday will have more sun and -10 °C. Thursday will be a mix of sun and cloud, -5 °C, and light winds. There maybe a temperature inversion.

Detailed weather forecasts from Avalanche Canada: https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.