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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2023–Jan 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at alpine and treeline elevations. Fresh snow sits over a persistent slab problem, at a prime depth for human triggering large, consequential avalanches.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported, but there have likely been natural avalanche cycles during the recent storms. Large human-triggered avalanches will continue to be a concern on Tuesday due to a combination of new snow, warming temperatures, and a potential weak layer and crust buried 60 to 80 cm deep.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 30 cm of new snow is expected on Monday night, which will quickly settle and melt as freezing levels rise on Tuesday. Storms over the past week deposited 60 to 80 cm over a slippery crust layer above 1000 m. Rain has soaked the snowpack at lower elevations.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation to below threshold for avalanches at most elevations below treeline, except for isolated smooth features such as rock slabs and grassy slopes.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Periods of snow with accumulations of 5 to 10 cm on the north island and 10 to 20 cm on the south island, rain below 500 m, 60 to 80 km/h southeast wind, treeline temperatures around -2 °C.

Tuesday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing another 5 to 10 cm of snow above 1000 m, rain below, 40 to 50 km/h southeast wind, freezing level climbs to 1600 m in the afternoon as treeline temperatures reach 0 °C.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud in the morning then light flurries starting in the late afternoon, 50 to 60 km/h southeast wind, freezing level drops to 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -1 °C.

Thursday

Stormy weather with 40 to 80 mm of precipitation, freezing level climbs from 1000 to 1800 m throughout the day, 70 to 100 km/h south wind.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.