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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2023–Jan 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Rockies, Clearwater, McBride, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Avoid rocky or wind loaded features where the snowpack varies from thick to thin. This is where both wind slabs and buried weak layers can most likely be triggered.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

A couple small natural cornice failures were observed on a southwest aspect in the alpine. They triggered small wind slabs on the slopes below.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

New wind slabs will likely develop at treeline and above on west, north and east aspects throughout the day. The snow surface will likely become moist at lower elevations as the freezing level rises.

A new crust can be found at or near the surface below 1800m and on some steep south facing slopes above 1800m. A new surface hoar layer can be found down 5 to 15 on sheltered treeline features.

The two layers of greatest concern are a layer of facets, crust and surface hoar that was buried around Christmas and found around 30 to 60 cm deep. Check out this MIN for some additional info, thanks to the poster for the info! The other is a layer of large, weak facets buried in November and found near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer is likely most problematic in alpine terrain, where shallower avalanches could scrub down to these basal facets. These layers may persist for a prolonged period of time, as described in our Forecasters' blog.

Snowpack depths are roughly 100 to 175 cm at treeline. In general the snowpack is weak and shallow.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with up to 5cm of new snow expected at treeline and above, rain at lower elevations. Moderate to strong southerly winds and freezing levels around 1600m.

Friday

Stormy with up to 10cm of new snow expected at treeline and above. Rain at lower elevations. Freezing levels rising to 1900m. Moderate to strong southerly winds.

Saturday

Cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Light to moderate southerly winds. Freezing level around 1600m in the south and 1000m in the north.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southerly winds and a high of -5 at 1800m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.