Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2024–Jan 28th, 2024

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Boundary, Stewart, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

Recent heavy precipitation, wind and continued warm temperatures have destabilized the snowpack. Very large avalanches have been observed in the region recently.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Saturday: Numerous large and very large (up to size 4) naturally-triggered avalanches were observed in the Bear Pass area.

Thursday: Two small natural and rider-triggered wet slabs were observed.

Wednesday: Several naturally-triggered large (size 2) avalanches were observed in the Bear Pass area.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60 cm of snow has fallen in parts of the region over the last week. This snow is likely very dense, settling rapidly, and moist or wet at treeline elevations and below, where some of this snow fell as rain. In some areas this snow overlies a weak layer of surface hoar and facets that formed earlier in the month. A thick crust from January 1st exists up to around 1600 m. There is potential for the warm temperatures and new precipitation to overload these layers triggering very large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with 2-8 cm of new snow / light to moderate rain, southwest alpine wind 50-60 km/h, treeline temperature 1°C, freezing level 1500 m

Sunday

Cloudy with 1-3 cm of snow / light rain, southerly alpine wind 75-80 km/h, treeline high of 2 °C, freezing level 1500-1600 m.

Monday

Cloudy with 15-30 cm of new snow / moderate to heavy rain, southerly alpine wind 70-80 km/h, treeline high of 3 °C, freezing level between 1500-1800 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 7-15 cm of snow in the alpine / moderate to heavy rain below, southwest alpine wind 55-75 km/h, treeline high of 1 °C, freezing level 1500m

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.