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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2024–Jan 21st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heavy snow and rain have impacted the snowpack. Raise your guard anywhere the storm snow remains dry, it is likely bonding poorly to the underlying surface.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, there were reports of skier triggered small wind slab avalanches running on the crust below. On Thursday, our Field Team skier triggered several wind slabs (size 1-2) from alpine and treeline terrain near Mount Cokely. Read more in this MIN.

We suspect a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred on Friday with heavy loading from snow, rain and wind.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has impacted the snowpack in most areas, leaving the surface wet and sloppy. Dry snow may prevail in the alpine, and will have been redistributed by strong southerly winds.

A weak facet/crust layer can be found down 50 to 100 cm. The remainder of the snowpack is strong, with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where there has been more rainfall.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with light rain. Alpine wind southeast 20 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature falling to 0 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with mixed precipitation, 5 to 15 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest 30 to 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.

Monday

Cloudy with rain, 4 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. Alpine wind southwest 30 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m,

Tuesday

Cloudy with rain, 2-6 cm of new snow accumulation at higher elevations. Alpine wind south 30 to 60 km/h. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.