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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 2nd, 2020–Nov 3rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

A strong inversion and lots of sun in the alpine will promote natural avalanche activity today.

Ski/ride with caution; early season conditions mean rocks, trees, open creeks, etc are desperately trying to trip you up. It's a long season, stay safe!

Weather Forecast

One more day of warmth in the alpine, with plenty of sunshine. A snowy, windy storm looms Tues-Thurs.

Mon: nil precip, mod SW winds, Alp high +3*C, fzl rising to 3900m

Tues: 15cm snow, mod SW winds, Alp high of 0*C, fzl at 1800m

Wed: 30cm snow, mod/gusting extreme SW winds, fzl near 2000m

Thurs: 15cm snow, mod/gusting extreme SW winds, fzl 1900m

Snowpack Summary

A healthy 1.5+m snowpack in the alpine rapidly shrinks to 30-40cm at 1300m. A supportive rain crust, found up to 2200m, is ~30cm below the surface near treeline elevations. Variable soft wind slabs on lee alpine and treeline features, with scouring to near ground on windward slopes. Lots of rocks, trees, and open creeks below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

A major early-season cycle Thursday/Friday produced numerous avalanches up to sz 3 on Tupper, Macdonald, and the N side of Cheops to sz 3; many of these avalanches made it to valley bottom. Warm temps and sun yesterday produced loose avalanches from steep, solar aspects to sz 2.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.