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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2020–Dec 16th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

Up to 25 cm of new snow with southwest winds have likely formed reactive storm slabs. Choose conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability such as whumphing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with flurries, 5-10 cm / southwest wind, 25-50 km/h / alpine low temperature near -8

WEDNESDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries, 5 cm / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7 

THURSDAY - Flurries, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -6

FRIDAY - Flurries, 10-20 cm / southwest wind, 25-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near -7

Avalanche Summary

With 15-25 cm of new snow and moderate to strong southwest winds, human triggered avalanches are likely, especially in wind loaded areas at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow has fallen in the region since Monday afternoon. This new snow has likely buried a weak layer of surface hoar in many areas. This new snow combined with southwest winds is likely forming reactive slabs, especially at higher elevations. 

A weak layer that was buried about a week ago is now down 20-50 cm. This layer is variable and has been reported to exist as either a crust or surface hoar. This layer may react easily to human triggers.

Another crust that was buried in early November can be found near the base of the snowpack. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, however it may be possible to trigger it from shallow, rocky terrain.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.