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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2020–Nov 28th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

  

 Recent storm totals could exceed 50 cm by Saturday morning. Human triggered avalanches will be very likely and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. There may be less new snow and one-step lower hazard in the southern portion of the region.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

  

FRIDAY NIGHT: Snow, 15-25 cm / Strong, southwest wind / alpine low temperature -14 / Freezing level valley bottom.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Light, west wind / alpine high temperature -7 / Freezing level valley bottom SUNDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Moderate, south wind / alpine high temperature -6 / Freezing level 1200 m.

MONDAY: Snow, 5-10 cm / Moderate, south wind / alpine high temperature -6 / Freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

  

Human triggered avalanches will be very likely and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new snow on Friday morning with another 15-25 cm expected by Saturday morning could bring 48hr storm totals to as much 50+ cm in the northern portion of the region. Human triggered avalanches will be very likely and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Saturday. There is a crust from early November now down approximately 75-125 cm. This crust has been observed with sugary facets above and below it. There are limited observations on this layer, but some test results indicate that it has the potential to be reactive to human triggering. Total snowpack depths are an average of 100-200 cm at upper elevations, tapering quickly at lower elevations. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.